0430 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 35.2 deg. with 98% RH

0515 temp. at 8400′ Incline Peak TH: 36 deg.

Backcountry obs.

Snow in the backcountry is now dominated by various crusts at all elevations and aspects. Expect combat skiing.

This morning a light refreeze on the snow surface made all crusts firm, but mainly breakable. Incline Peak is heavily tracked out and skin tracks are very icy. N facing aspects and sheltered trees tend to have thinner crusts with cold-ish snow beneath, while solar and wind exposed aspects have thicker crusts straddling the breakable/unbreakable line. Even the mellowest terrain has turned into adventure skiing.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Today through Weds. will be warm and dry with partly cloudy skies. Highs around the lake will approach the lower 50’s, especially Sun. through Weds. while lows hang out in the mid-lower 30’s. Any refreezes on snow surfaces will be minimal. A dramatic shift to colder and wetter conditions takes hold Weds. PM into the weekend bringing snow (potentially significant) to all backcountry zones and elevations.

At dawn high clouds filled the skies with a grey film that has yet to clear by early afternoon. Moisture bumping up along the northwestern edge of the building ridge of high pressure is giving a “dirty ridge” feel to the warm, calm weather. Inversions are in place in the Tahoe Basin with temps. hanging in the low 40’s near lake level with upper 40’s to near 50 in the 7000-8000′ range. Periods of high clouds streaming aloft from now through Wednesday will help keep low temperatures high, adding to the slow bake of the snow pack over the next few days.

It’s a good time to tune up skis and boards for the second half of winter. The warm trend will be short-lived.

Starting Weds. PM, a shift to a more active and cooler pattern begins with the arrival of an initially warm storm (snow levels starting ~7500′) lowering down to lake level by the wee hours of Thurs. AM. Snow looks likely from Thurs., through at least the first half of the coming weekend.

Details of each system within the shift remain hazy this far out. Models continue to play with the idea of a splitting upper jet that favors the Sierra south of Tahoe for heaviest snowfall. In the past day, the idea of AR potential and a subtropical moisture plume phasing with the storm has also begun to look less likely. Despite the hints of these tempering forces conspiring to not wallop our area with multiple feet of snow, the pattern does look highly favorable to rounds of colder, wetter storms through at least next weekend. Looking beyond, ensembles show a strengthening subtropical jet into SoCal, which could bode well for our area being on the colder side of incoming Pacific storms.

Winter is far from over and there’s much reason to hope looking ahead into February.