0430 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 31.7 deg.

No new precip.

0515 temp. at 8650′ Tamarack TH: 32 deg.

No new precip.

Backcountry obs.:

Today dawned overcast and gloomy in the mountains with light to moderate NNE winds, especially along the ridge tops. A few flurries whizzed around my headlamp this morning, but nothing steady or heavy enough to accumulate.

Temps. are warm and the snow is responding. At dawn, cold snow was still abundant in the Rose backcountry from 8500′ upward, but it’s getting warmer and more dense. Surfaces are slightly wind-textured and soft in protected and shaded areas. Open aspects and even some N facing chutes have about an inch of higher density, yet easily turnable buff atop cold, soft snow. More exposed ridges feature sastrugi, wind plaster, and wind hardened sun crusts on solar aspects.

The skiing was forgiving, soft and fun this morning, but with quickly warming snow, it should expire by afternoon.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Today begins the warm up, but with an unsettled and humid flavor to the change intially. Abundant cloud cover and temps into the mid 40’s are expected today as a system skirts by to the N. Tonight temps stay warm under cloudy skies.

Tomorrow will be even warmer with highs around the lake near 50 deg. under mostly cloudy skies with an outside chance of a light shower or sprinkle. Snow levels will remain above any mountains in our area.

Sun.-Tues. the ridge of high pressure responsible for the warmth will strengthen, clearing out skies and pushing temps. 10-15 deg. above average: low 50’s in lake and mountain communities, mid 40’s in the backcountry. Unless combat skiing heavy, wet mank, and crust is your thing, it might be a good time to hop on a bike or hit the beach. Corn snow seems unlikely with the current sun angle, duration of the warmup, and weak refreezes–if at all–during the thaw.

Fear not! Around the middle of the week, models agree on big changes that bring the Pacific jet right into our area, then sagging further south. This will bring storminess and colder temps.! AR (atmospheric river) prediction tools are also signaling decent chances for AR enhanced moisture to accompany the storms.

Specifics on the track and strength of the upcoming storms in the pattern change are still tough to nail down. Models evolve with each run and are not yet in complete agreement, especially on storm tracks. Some bring in a few storms into the Central Sierra, others start with Central Sierra hits, then a progression further S, favoring Mammoth to Southern California. Probabilistic forecasts do show a better than 50% chance for up to a foot of snow for the crest in the Tahoe Sierra.

It’s still too far out to build expectations on any amounts. However, expecting the incoming January thaw to be brief, followed by a solid refresh in the mountains is looking more and more like a good bet starting around the middle of next week.