0600 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 27.7 deg. & 88%RH

New snow: a dandruffing of flakes

No backcountry obs.

Backcountry obs.

No first hand obs. today. Remote sensors showed cold temps hanging on yesterday, which dropped further last night and this morning. Winds were moderate throughout the day yesterday, but sheltered areas probably still harbor cold, soft snow, even if heavily tracked out.

Reports of rain near 8500′ and higher came in along the crest yesterday. I suspect a rain crust coats the surface in zones on the W side of the lake.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Last night another weak impulse came through the region from the N lowering temps and dropping the slightest accumulation. At the house, a pattern of large snowflakes coats the street. It looks as though a giant with an itchy scalp walked down the street, leaving a trail of flakes behind.

Today a light northerly flow will keep temps cool (upper 30’s around the lake) under mainly clear skies. It might just be enough to preserve cold snow up high for one last day. RH values may also dip providing an extra cooling agent on the surface snow. Tonight lows will dip again, refreezing whatever’s left on the ground at lake level and keeping snow up high cold and dry.

Tomorrow the Juneuary thaw begins in earnest until the next pattern change around the middle of next week. Temps. will get into the middle 40’s tomorrow, then rise into the lower 50’s Sat. through at least Tues., 1/30. Skies will be mainly clear, with occasional passing periods of cloudiness under what will initially be a “dirty ridge” of high pressure. A few stray liquid showers could sneak in on Sat. for most elevations. Snow levels will be near or above 9000′. Sun.-Tues. it will be warm and sunny. Low temps during the period may not even get down to freezing. Backcountry snow quality will suffer.

Details of the upcoming pattern change are still fuzzy as models continue to evolve with each run. A stormy pattern should return around Weds./Thurs. of next week, starting warm and cooling off with time. CPC (NOAA Climate Prediction Center) 8-10 day forecasts for the period show average temps and probabilities notably weighted towards above average precip. Recent models for late next week suggest colder storms splitting and/or favoring the central and southern Sierra. However, each model run shows something different this far out. Time will tell.