0430 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 32.7 deg.

No new precip.

0515 temp. at 8650′ Tamarack TH: 28 deg.

Trace new snow

Backcountry Obs.

Low clouds, fog, and occasional rain/snow showers have started out the morning. At dawn in the Tamarack backcountry it snowed lightly and intermittently, accompanied by moderate winds out of the WNW.

Snow is still soft, holding up best on true N-NE aspects and in W-E facing trees. Yesterday’s fluffy, fast snow topped with surface hoar has morphed into thicker and lightly wind-effected 4-5″ of cold, soft snow, excellent for skiing fast and hopping around the forest. Lower on the mountain and on more southerly aspects, crunchy, refrozen tree melt has fallen and refrozen atop the snow surface in forested areas. True S aspects host a thin, breakable suncrust that is apparent, but not too widespread or bothersome to manage.

Moderate winds are lightly grooming the snow surface, but plenty of tracks remain visible. Apart from some subtle texture, especially near and above treeline, wind effect has been minimal at degrading the snow surface. Snow is available to transport, but pillows and wind slabs are not yet prominent, nor were actively growing on my tour.

The next system is quickly approaching and its warm moisture source is apparent. Fog enshrouded the summit this am and the snow feels as though it’s soaking up the moisture, becoming a bit more dense with windward areas riming ever so slightly.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Today’s warmish system peaks later today with heaviest precip. along the crest and in the higher terrain. Any snow showers this morning will turn to rain in Tahoe communities as snow levels scramble back up to 7500-8000′. I suspect that with the warmth of this storm, another layer of warm fog or drizzle may affect the crest, yet again forming a rain crust higher than the forecast snow lines.

Highs today at lake level will be near 40, with temps. wobbling in the low to mid 30’s above 8000′. Tonight the system begins to ease and move out as snow levels drop once again, just in time for any residual showers to finish off the event with a cold dusting. Snow totals will likely end in the 1-6″ range.

Tomorrow the sun returns with seasonal highs near 40 at lake level, low to mid 30’s in the mountains.

Friday and Saturday begin the January thaw that envelops the region through the end of the month. Some showers could sneak in on Fri. and Sat. as Tahoe gets caught between a nascent ridge of high pressure to the east, and the moist southerly flow directed at the PacNW. Snow levels will be very high: up to 9000′.

The ridge amplifies even further Sun. through the middle of next week with highs around the lake in the low 50’s under generally fair skies.

Models and ensembles show an E. Pacific troughing pattern setting up around Feb. 1 with storms again entering the picture. The Pacific jet also looks to extend across the ocean towards the west coast. There’s little agreement today on specifics this far out, and just about any flavor of unsettled weather could befall the area. What does seem likely is an abrupt end to the warm and dry weather of the coming days.