0430 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 29.1 deg. No new precip.

0515 temp. at 8400’ Incline Peak TH: 23 deg. 3-4″? new snow in last 24 hrs.

Backcountry obs.

The warm, damp atmosphere of the past few days finally cooled down overnight. Skies cleared by dawn with the exception of some low clouds and fog hanging over valleys and depressions in the mountains.

Yesterday’s weather tempered my hopes for any cold snow this morning, but alas, a few inches of cold, light snow sat atop the recently fallen dense Sierra cement! Skinning up the peak, snow felt largely right side up (denser below, lighter atop). Little to no wind effect marred the snow surface except for the slightest wind ripple on above treeline terrain within 100′ of the summit.

The cold, light surface snow skied remarkably well: fast, soft, and playful, it flew like pixie dust. Tracks from skiers over the past two days were largely filled in, creating a blank canvass primed for the signing. Despite under-performing in snow totals, the dense snow from this most recent cycle (1/20-1/22) has further fattened up coverage, rounding out the remaining boulders and stumps whose teeth have nipped, bitten, and ground ski bases all season. When skiing steeper terrain, the cold new snow on top ran down the length of gullies as small, manageable, cold sluffs, failing to trigger any larger instabilities. Cold, fresh, snow atop a soft, dense base: a sneaker powder day!

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Today’s surprise has likely heated and thickened as of this writing. Temps today should break the freezing mark in most backcountry zones and reach the low 40’s around the lake. Plentiful sunshine will dominate giving a nice reprieve from days of misty showers and gloom.

Tonight temps will cool back off just in time for another small system to affect the area starting early Weds. am through Weds. night. Snow will again be largely confined to the higher elevations above 7000′. If precip. begins early enough tomorrow morning, snow levels could start out below lake level, but then rise throughout the day before ending entirely Weds. evening. This one won’t be a big producer, dropping a few inches at max.

The end of the week into the weekend is no longer looking as tranquil as previously thought. A ridge of high pressure will build over the inner mountain west, but because Tahoe sits between the high and the active flow into the Pacific NW, some moisture could sneak into the area Fri. and Sat. as it skirts around the influence of the high. Some models are more bullish than others. Anything that does fall will be light and liquid, even up to around 9000′. Temps. will be warm with highs in the mid 40’s around the lake and lows in the low 30’s, possibly warmer.

By the end of the weekend and into early next week, models continue to show warm and dry weather with highs starting to tickle 50 around the lake. The dry weather does look short lived as an extension of the Pacific jet appears to rebuild and take aim on our area around Feb. 1 & 2. The flavor and track of any storms is yet to be determined.