0600 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 35.2 deg.

No new precip.

No firsthand backcountry obs. this morning.

Backcountry obs.:

Based off conditions yesterday and remote sensor readings atop Slide Mountain, I did not head out into the backcountry this morning. High temps. reached 44 deg. yesterday at 9600′ with light to moderate S winds. Lows last night stayed a few degrees above freezing. Conditions are likely cooked and in need of new snow, even at the highest elevations.

Weather and forecast thoughts:

New snow is needed and luckily, that’s what’s in the forecast for this weekend. This morning dawned dreary and a bit warm, signaling the arrival of a warm series of storms slated for the weekend into early next week.

Models this morning are trending a bit wetter for the first system coming in tonight. NWS Reno issued a Winter Weather Advisory last night for areas above 6500′ for 3-8″ up to 7000′,and 8-12″ above 7000′. Because this system will have less potential for spillover, zones along the crest will be favored for higher snow/rain totals. Winds will increase from the SW as the storm approaches, but don’t look to be as strong and intense as those from the last cycle.

Sun. night, the next wave comes in, which will favor areas from Tahoe south into the Eastern Sierra. This system will again be warm with snow levels mainly at 7000′ and higher. There is more convective energy and forcing available with round two, so NWS issued a winter storm warning for the period of Sun. PM to the wee hours of Tues. AM. Snowfall totals for the higher elevations will be between 1-2′ of new Sierra cement. The stronger dynamic of this storm will allow areas east of the crest to get in on more rain/snow action.

The weekend looks promising for a 1-2’+ refresh and base building above 7000′, but around the lake expect another sloppy mix of rain and snow.

Looking beyond the weekend storms, another warm, yet weak disturbance shows up in the models for midweek, followed by a solid signal for a ridge of high pressure building next weekend and holding on for the remainder of January. A ridge would likely warm things up and keep us dry, deflecting the storm track north of us. Could it cook up some late January corn snow?

As we enter February, some models suggest the ridge moving out and a wetter pattern returning. It’s a long way off, but I’m hopeful that winter will return for at least a few weeks. For now, bring on the cement!