0600 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 27.1 deg. & 98% RH

No new snow

No backcountry obs. today

Forecast and weather thoughts:

Inversions are in place this morning with low clouds hanging over the north side of the Basin. Temps. mid slope in the mountains are nearly ten degrees warmer than at lake level, but dewpoints have dropped, likely keeping sheltered snow cold and soft through radiational cooling.

The next system arrives late in the day today. Winds will steadily increase out of the SW and mix out the inversions and fog by midday. High clouds will arrive with the winds, announcing the imminent arrival of more precip. This system is transient and doesn’t have a robust forcing mechanism, but it does have a tap on subtropical moisture. The result will be a warm event beginning this evening and lasting through tomorrow morning. Rain and snow will be heaviest W, dropping off significantly from W to E across the Sierra.

Because of the subtropical moisture tap, snow levels will start out between 8500-9000′ this evening, dropping to around 7000′ by storm’s end. By tomorrow morning, 3-6″ of heavy snow could coat the backcountry. Anywhere from .5″ to 1″ of rain is possible across the Tahoe Basin.

A warm break in the action comes in behind this next system with highs around lake level in the mid 40’s under a mix of clouds and sun.

Fri. pm the storm door opens yet again, with models in agreement showing rounds of rain/snow as a strong Pacific jet takes aim on our area. It still looks like next weekend and the first half of the following week may bring abundant rain and snow, but with snow levels bouncing up and down between 6500-7500′. These storms will all have a subtropical tap to their moisture and with no phasing of cold air from the Gulf of Alaska. We may be in store for a mid-winter rain event in the mid and lower elevations.

On the upside, days of Sierra cement pounding the higher backcountry will continue to fatten up the snowpack and may even overload whatever’s left of the persistent weak layer instabilities that lurk at the bottom of the snowpack. Then we’d just need a cold cycle to load some powder on top and boom: party time!

But back to reality, warm sloppiness is imminent. Do what you can with it.