0630 temp. At 6350’ in Carnelian Bay: 30.0 deg. No new precip.

No backcountry obs. today

Weather and forecast thoughts:

Snow started picking up around 0830 near lake level. Earlier this morning cloudy skies prevailed with just an occasional flurry. As snow began in earnest, the temp. inched up to and beyond the freezing mark around 0830. Rain will likely mix in from midday onward and hopefully turn back to snow some time tonight. The cold snow is gone at lake level.

But no one really skis in the backcountry at lake level. For zones above 7000’, this will be an all snow event with amounts between 1-2’, especially along the crest and west side of the lake. The snow will be classic Sierra cement, which may be a blessing in disguise. In addition to adding coverage and base to the mountains, the heavy snow may initiate another avalanche cycle that triggers zones that have not yet cycled through the persistent weak layers deep in the snowpack from December, and more recently in the layer from 1/2. The added weight could help flush out those instabilities with a big cycle. What follows is unknown, but it would be nice to put those lurking early season white monsters to bed.

Tomorrow will be a clearing day with cool, but not particularly cold temps.

A ridge of high pressure moves in early in the week bringing mild and dry weather to the area. A system still looks like it could brush by with high snow levels and light precipitation. around midweek, but in general, a January thaw looks all but certain for the next week following this storm.