0430 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 12.3 deg. and 89% RH

24 hr. new snow total: 9″

0530 temp. at 8400′ Incline Peak TH: 1 deg.

Est. 24 hr. new snow 12-16″

Backcountry Obs.

It was crystalline and cold this morning in the Incline Peak backcountry. Beautiful cold, light, shin deep snow greeted us at the trailhead continuing all the way to treeline near the summit. Some density changes and layers in the new snow were noticeable breaking trail, but no whumphs or cracks appeared on our skin to the the peak. Near and above treeline there were some wind affected pillows, sastugi, and scouring, but nothing that sniffing around the corner couldn’t fix.

The skiing today was by far the best of the season. Today is the day you dream about in the fall and remember deep into next summer. The recent snow from 1/6 has consolidated a bit providing better coverage over the rocks and logs that lurked sneakily just beneath the surface last weekend. The added snow from yesterday’s storm provided cushioning between skier and stump/log/boulder. The result is a super-fun setup where one can point it top to bottom making fluffy, bottomless turns. Terrain features are mainly covered and soft, making for playful pops, jumps, and powder spraying turns. I gently grazed one boulder in a turn, but could care less. It’s just that good.

Powder days are unique and fleeting. Get it if you can.

Forecast Thoughts:

It’s tough to care about anything but the present when it’s this good. But more snow just means more fun. Another system comes into the region Fri. PM-Sat. PM and could deliver 1-2′ of new snow, mainly for the higher elevations above 7000′. This one is going to be warmer with snow levels likely at or slightly above lake level beginning on Saturday, but starting out as snow on Fri. night. NWS Reno has issued a winter storm watch for the region. The GFS has come into line this morning with what the Euro was showing for much of the week: the center of low pressure developing further south near the central/southern Oregon coast.

This brings in a juicier storm with a deeper moisture plume for the Tahoe Sierra rather than a glancing blow. The onset of the storm is 36 hours out and forecast confidence remains moderate while model agreement is just now beginning to fall in line. This leads me to think that this one could surprise us either way. The record warm waters currently in the Eastern Pacific tend to add favor to higher snow levels, but also a wetter system.

My thinking is that lake level will see a soppy few inches with rain mixing in on Saturday PM. Above 7000′, this will most likely fall entirely as dense Sierra cement. The snow won’t be blower powder, but additional coverage and resource rich snow is good for everyone, on mountain and off.

The weekend storm will clear out on Saturday night and early Sunday leaving the remaining two days of the holiday weekend sunny and seasonable, but not frigid like today. Expect highs flirting with 40 near lake level, cooler in the mountains. Lows will dip well below freezing everywhere.

Next week looks like a toss up between completely dry and mild or a mild and weak disturbance arriving midweek. All the more reason to get out now and enjoy the beautiful powder day.