0430 temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 28.6 deg. / No new snow.

0530 temp. at 8600′ Tamarack TH: 24 deg. / No new snow.

Backcountry Obs.

I woke up to some lenticulars mixed with starry skies this morning, but this quickly turned into fog and intense WNW winds in the backcountry. Skinning up from the Tamarack TH, WNW gusts raked the ridge connecting E and W Galena Peaks with a deafening roar. Occasional gusts made it down to my level kicking up spin drifts and blowing snow, but nothing strong enough to turn me around.

Snow surface in the trees was textured, but still soft and becoming more consolidated since the 1/6 storm. As I climbed towards treeline and the summit of Tamarack, winds increased and their effects on the snow surface did too. Consistent buffed powder turned into wind board, drummy wind pillows and even some exposed crust. Plenty of snow was available for transport being deposited in lee E-SE aspects.

The skiing this morning is varied with assorted cold wind affected surfaces. As such, each turn offered something different for the whole family: crust, soft buff, scratchy cold board, textured soft powder, you name it! Other than the obvious wind loading, I noted no other obvious signs of instability.

Forecast Thoughts:

Today will be a bit milder than the past few days with highs in the 30’s under a mix of clouds, sun, and snow showers. Not much accumulation is expected with highest amounts along the crest.

NWS Reno hoisted a winter storm warning for the Wednesday storm and has trended up a bit in the snow forecast: 8-14″ around the lake with 1-2′ above 7000′. Like the 1/6 event, this one looks to come in as a NW slider complete with intense prefrontal winds and a quick, cold shot of snow starting Wednesday morning and tapering off in the evening. Snowfall rates of 1-3″ per hour during the main event appear likely. Highs tomorrow will be lucky to hit 30 in Tahoe communities, while the mountains will stay nice and cold as the snow dumps.

The outlook for the weekend and beyond continues to confound. The GFS shows a milder storm gracing our area with a glancing blow. The Euro favors a more significant storm, but also a bit warmer than the sliders we’ve experienced recently. The issue at play is the placement of the low pressure associated with the storm: the GFS brings the low in near the Puget Sound, while the Euro brings it in near the CA/OR border. The other global forecasting models are equally split between the two solutions. Only time will tell which flavor of weather we’ll have over MLK weekend. We’re going to get something, just how big and how warm is the kicker.

Beyond next weekend is even more uncertain. The latest CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks published yesterday. Both indicated greater chances of above average precip. and above average temps. The deterministic models are all over the place, changing with each run. All the uncertainty definitely makes looking ahead and trying to decipher what’s to come more exciting.

For now though, the snow will only get better from tomorrow through the rest of the work week. Best get out there and enjoy while it’s here.