6:30am temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 12.9 deg.

No new snow in the past 24 hours.

Forecast Thoughts:

After heaping bowls of powder yesterday, I took a day off today. No backcountry report.

This morning dawned cold and clear, but quickly clouded over from the N shortly after daybreak. Low clouds look to be streaming in from the PacNW from some warm air advecting into the region in the upper levels. Highs today should get near to just above freezing around the lake.

Tomorrow a small disturbance comes through dropping some light snow, but likely nothing more than an inch and change at most.

Wednesday’s system looks to be holding together and appears very similar to the Saturday storm in track, duration, and snow amounts. The storm will tumble down from the NW bringing strong winds and 4-6 hours of heavy snow in the 1-2″ per hour range, before quickly tapering off to showers and clear skies by Wednesday night/Thurs. AM. Expect cold temps on Thurs. am. I think anywhere from 4″ on the east shore to 10″ on the west at lake level isn’t too much to expect from this one. Amounts will increase with elevation and proximity to the crest, with the higher backcountry zones hopefully getting a foot or more.

This weekend the script begins to change. Models aren’t really settling on anything specific beyond a solid chance of unsettled weather and a storm coming into the west coast. The atmospheric dynamics that have been keeping us cold with blower pow-type storms are going to start changing. A high pressure center SW of CA near 130W will greatly impact the storm track and how much/what we get. If it nudges a few hundred miles further W, that’ll help us get a decent cold storm. If it comes closer to us, the energy will be deflected into the PacNW and then east of us with milder temps. Most models bring the temps up to what looks like a 5-6k’ snow line–better snow for building a base in the mountains. However, when forecasts bring snow levels up, I get a little nervous to see how high they will actually go.

Some models bring the storm and the bulk of its moisture in over the PacNW, then out towards Utah and Colorado, others bring it further south. Whatever the track, it is different from our current pattern or NW sliders coming in from the Gulf of Alaska.

There are 5-6 days between now and then, so more time will help models iron out the inconsistencies and clarify the pattern’s evolution. For now, there’s some more cold smoke on the way midweek. Best get out and enjoy it while it’s here.