4:30am temp. at 6350′ in Carnelian Bay: 24.3 deg.

New snow: 3.5 in.

5:30am temp. at 8600′ Tamarack Peak TH: 16 deg.

New snow observed in the Tamarack BC: 3-7 in.

Backcountry Obs.

Tahoe finally got some measurable snowfall for the first time in at least a few weeks, even though in a big year, this storm would barely be noticeable. Snow started last night around 6:30pm and continued through the night. This morning the main band of snow has departed and left light flurries/snow showers in its wake with mostly cloudy skies in the Tahoe Basin. As predicted, points on the western side of the basin and along the crest received the most snow.

This morning I intended to finally ski something different and opted for Incline Peak. But after noticing how little snow appeared to have fallen in that area, I pushed on to Tamarack Peak. I found 3 inches or so had accumulated near the trailhead with some wind sculpting on the surface. All previous tracks from weeks of heavy use have been buffed and filled into a virgin surface. Higher up near the summit, 6-7 in. seemed to have fallen, but exact amounts were tough to measure due to wind affect. Moderate SW winds increased in intensity as I climbed and light snow fell during my whole tour.

The descent was excellent, likely feeling even better due to the weeks of anticipation of any snow surface that wasn’t crust, rocks and stumps. Exposed ridges and bowls did have some wind effect/slight stiffness, but the trees skied soft, fluffy and fast: fast pow!

I observed no obvious stability red flags like whumping or shooting cracks. There was a fair amount of wind transport onto N-E exposed slopes and I did see some growing wind slabs. Along the far east ridge of Tamarack a hand pit revealed a growing slab around 6 in. deep. Stomps and ski cuts did not produce results.

Forecast Thoughts:

The long-hinted at colder and active pattern seems to be upon us. NWS Reno has been consistent in their outlook for the weekend storm putting down the most snow of the season at all elevations–still not saying much. However, a solid foot on the crest and in the backcountry might have 50% or better odds. Lake level would likely be half that. I’m not getting too excited as the models have seemed more tepid than the official forecast shows. Need to wait and see.

A small inside slider type disturbance will precede the weekend storm and could give a dandruffing to the area at best.

Further out, another storm shows up for early/middle of next week and more every few days thereafter. Models do show quite a bit of variation on the storms that are further out, so this is keeping confidence in snow amounts low. Some look much like what we’ve been getting, others show some big boys around the middle of the month. However, there is consistency in that the GFS and Euro ensembles do show an active pattern.

I’ll take whatever we can get.