5:00am temp at 6350′: 33.8 / RH 89%

5:45am temp at 8650′ Tamarack TH: 34

New snow in last 24hrs: 0 in.

I toured this morning in the Mt. Rose area around Tamarack Peak to check to see if the shady NW-E aspects are holding cold snow and if the last little system dropped anything.

I observed no new snow from the last wave that passed through overnight 12/27-28. The sensor on top of Slide Mtn. crested freezing yesterday (12/28)–and remained above freezing for most of the night– but RH stayed fairly low, so I hoped evaporational cooling would keep snow grains from melting. Driving up from lake level suggested some mild inversions with the temp at the lake just a bit lower than up at the TH along with some low hanging freezing fog around a few meadows. Obs this morning on my tour showed that to be the case. Some pockets of cold snow remain in shaded areas, but anything receiving direct sunlight or any disturbance has crusted over. The Tamarack zone has been hit hard with skier traffic looking more like a resort at 4pm on a powder day than the backcountry. Refresh needed.

Mid-upper level passing clouds and moderate S/SW winds on the summit seem to be announcing the arrival of the next disturbance. Little to no snow available for wind transport.

Forecast Thoughts:

NWS Reno hoisted a Winter Weather Advisory for tonight through Sat. PM in the Tahoe Basin for the next impulse: 8-12″ on the crest with 1-4″ around the lake level. Overnight models trended down a touch for precip. It looks like the backcountry will likely get a surface refresh, maybe a bit more with some luck. I’m not expecting this one to open up any more zones further down mountain, but anything helps our meager snowpack at this point. An aesthetic few inches at lake level would also be appreciated so that it feels like winter.

The trend towards an active and cooler pattern with waves of moisture every few days still shows this morning, but nothing looks impressive and consistent enough to instill confidence. After the Fri-Sat system, a cutoff low looks to develop and swing south of the SoCal coast 12/31-1/1, followed by a modest system around the 3rd that could give us another few inches of refresh. Beyond that, models continue to ebb and flow showing disturbances with variations between each model run.

For now, I’ll just keep hope alive for a refresh.