I headed out to the Mt. Rose backcountry for a dawn patrol tour on 12/27 to Tamarack Peak. High clouds with some lenticulars at sunrise announced the approaching storm. It was 31 degrees at the trailhead at 8600ft., with very low single digit RH (relative humidity).

The Tamarack zone is littered with ski tracks both ascending and descending and finding fresh turns is currently a challenge. The last snow wrapped up on the 22nd and with locally high snow lines in the bc, most folks around Tahoe are skiing in the Rose zone.

Snow is still soft in shaded areas and on N-E aspects. Temps have stayed just below freezing from around 8500ft up. Anything in the open or that has any southerly touch to its aspect now has a breakable suncrust making turns challenging. Above treeline there is some wind affect/crust. Best turns are on N. facing trees above 8500ft. It’s still low tide and sharky in places, so don’t be surprised if your sticks get intimate with stumps and rocks.

I have not noted any obvious instabilities in the snowpack from the surface, but quick hand pits do reveal the persistent layer of facets beneath the last snowfall.

Forecast Thoughts:

It’s still challenging to really pin anything down more than 3 days out. Last night’s wave dropped .01 in of water at my weather station at 6350ft in Carnelian Bay. The next wave (Fri PM-Sat night) looks to be a bit colder with snow levels near lake level or just above, with moisture streaming in from the south, not ideal for efficient spillover off the crest. Prob a few inches around the Basin with greater totals on the West Shore and hopefully up to a foot near the crest. Maybe 6-8 inches of snow in the Rose Area. It doesn’t look to open up much new terrain, but will help fill things in and provide a reset for the few areas that have been skied out.

Looking beyond the weekend storm, models are trending colder with waves coming in off the Pacific. Nothing looks overly strong, but the consistent theme is cool with continued waves coming in, but nothing that looks like a classic Sierra storm. There is little consistency from model run to model run, so confidence is low in any outcome. Gotta keep the faith.